REVOLUTION

Events leading to revolution:

1)       Prior to a revolution, intellectuals, journalists, poets, etc. cease to support the regime

2)       State attempts to meet needs make reforms

3)       Government is met w/major crisis and unable to cope with it.

4)       Collapse of internal order among elites

5)       First group of new leaders are generally reformists, i.e.

6)       Moderates but fail to quell radical centers of violence

7)       Triangles occur when moderates fail and mass mobilizing forces take over.

8)       Radical control is implemented

9)       Struggle between moderates, defenders and external enemies -- |  military leaders

10)   Radical phase gives way to new status quo.

 Why revolutionary violence?

1)       Ted Gurr – relative deprivation and rising expectations.

2)        Hopelessness + Frustration +Anger=Violence

 The four apparently necessary conditions for revolution are:

             1.  The appearance of contenders or coalitions of contenders, advancing exclusively alternative claims to the control over the government currently exerted by the members of the polity;

             2. Commitment to those claims by a significant segment of the subject population;

            3. Unwillingness or incapacity of the agents of the government tosuppress the alternative coalition or the commitment to its claims.

 The condition facilitating revolution:

 4. Formation of coalitions between members of the polity and the contenders making the alternative claims.

 The Conditions Leading to Countermobilization:

 1. The declining coercive will or capacity of the state.

2. A simplification of politics.

3. Mass polarization.

4. The politicization of traditionally non-political social sectors.

5. Crisis-initiating events(s).

6. Exacerbating responses by the regime.

 Western model – political institutions of old regime collapse – new groups – enter poli. & new institutions develop.

 Eastern Revolution – mobilization of new groups into politics – new institutions – overthrow of old institutions prolonged period of Dual Power – two gov’ts